Minsim Meeting Agendas and Recaps

From CSWiki
Jump to: navigation, search

09/29/08

For next week:

  • Look up information on Aspen project/failure(?) (starting point: Aspen)
  • Look at Chris's software and start trying to see if real-life economic problems are reproduced in the simulation
  • Examples:
    • Tariffs, international trade
    • Specialization of labor, Adam Smith
    • Maximizing revenue of entrepreneurs vs total country revenue
    • Inflation, Stagflation, Phillips curve
    • Compare the stability of a central banking system with that of the gold standard
    • Evaluate the "bailout"
  • Post summaries of articles up on the wiki
    • Sign up for the wiki
    • Edit the section "Papers on economic Agent-Based simulation"

Extension:

  • Look at the household model and formulate ways to improve Chris's model

10/06/08

  • Went over code
  • Why don't prices stabilize on its own?
  • Broad objectives?
  • Figure out where supply/demand is in the code
  • use this to see if the simulation satisfies the properties of supply/demand
  • Play with parameters- More stability with more workers, etc? (keep in mind that this slows down the program)
  • Brainstorm things we can look at in the future
  • Interest rates?
  • Meet separately Wednesday (4:30, Friend library) to look over code
  • Start looking into old intro micro/macro books

10/13/08

Tasks

  • Baseline economy
  • Arbitragers
  • External Influence
    • SEC Regulation
    • Government Regulation
    • Taxes
    • Media
    • Rumors
  • Factors going into external influence
    • Banking
      • Central banks
      • Gold standard
    • Technical vs. Fundamental analysis
      • Trend following
    • Machine learning
      • Partial/full information for agent?
      • Emotional agents?
      • Agents don’t have to be fully rational
      • How good should the machine learning be to reflect the world?
    • International Trade


10/20/08

Task

  • eric- lifecycles of individual
  • tony- info flow, communication, mkt for information
  • stephanie- financial intruments? taxes, 401ks?
    • Current banking system, politician's plans- will it work? Moratorium on mortgages. Free market vs. regulation of government
    • Controversy b/w deregulation and regulation, party platforms
  • CVS setup

11/3/08

  • Sheri wants to look at Trend following, arbitrageurs
  • Tony wants to look at media- flow of information in economy where default state is that they only know local information
  • To simulate: make a theory, get mathematical results, then simulate to verify/revoke results
  • Market failure - used to justify infusion of capital, govt regulation (build model for credit default swaps - miscalculation of risk- because of lack of government regulation?)
  • IIASA: publications that conduct interdisciplinary studies on economy and other global forces: IIASA

11/10/08

  • Eric's professor recommends that he understand the original model in the simulation and go through literature to understand savings and lifetimes.
  • Tony - wants to start fundamentally on convergent prices and how information flows with pricing mechanisms.
    • Zero-intelligence Agents- Economic science association conference
    • JEBO- paper by Mizuta, giving agents access to order book with offers to buy and sell-- enormously stabilizing
  • Tony's advisor wants him to first do analytics, then do simulation
  • Stephanie- is going to look into interbank lending and the credit crunch, then if possible, look into CDS contracts
    • Prof Steiglitz has a technical description of credit crunch by a WWS professor affililated with the Econ dept

11/17/08

  • Tony should look into auctions
  • Stephanie will write up API documentation on the banking code.
  • Framework interface is set up to define arbitrageurs like hedge fund. The entrepreneurs are arbitrage firms.
  • Presentation by Prof. Vichnevetsky: "World" Modeling and Simulation
  • Bib-tech: allows you to sort citations

11/24/08

  • Paper summaries: To migrate to the main website at minsim.cs.princeton.edu. Will create a bibliographic list, with links to popups with summaries.
  • Tutorial
    • Should be assessable to everyone
    • Getting started page
    • Step by step instructions
    • Eclipse cheat-sheet
    • Applications to COS444 and other classes
  • Tony: locality problems to be looked into
  • Machine learning responses to bidding strategies
    • Ausubel + Cramton paper

12/08/08

  • Stephanie: Interlending of banks
    • Need to finish resolving the conflicts with Repast
  • Questions to answer
    • If you make some predictions about policy, what do competing theories predict?
    • After interbank lending model, can look at government effects
  • Further discussion: what you can include in coursework
  • Dan: base abstract class is done for technical trader
    • Need to fill in the functions for each type
    • Cannot short sell in this program
    • Possible extension: Momentum trading
    • plug into economy
  • Sheri: circuit breaking
    • Bernanke's bubble laboratory(about price bubbles)
    • Brunnemeier also talked about this
  • Tony: bilateral trades
    • 2 agents - to trade, need to satisfy specific conditions
    • Myerson and Sattertwaite (the homepage for COS444 has these literature references)


01/08/09

  • Dan's project
    • Money supply increasing out of control that allows the runs to be stable
    • This needs to be investigated before adding to the model
    • 16% of runs were stable
    • Where does money come from? Taxes, deficit spending (central bank)
    • Why doesn't this lead to inflation in food prices?
    • Bankrupt firms should die or have a new learning algorithm
  • Eric's progress
    • Working in the cluster to run simulations
    • Is there something wrong with the Q-learning algorithm?
    • Overall, looking at stability
  • Tony's 323 project
    • Models of how agents exchange products- Who trades with whom?
    • Geographic proximity, an internal list, etc.
    • a lot of potential for different configurations
    • No central market clearing mechanism
    • Distributed, pairwise trading- meeting in the marketplace
  • Book - Henry Hazlitt's "Economics in One Lesson"
    • Look at every effect of each action
    • every action affects other agents
  • Stephanie
    • Deal with bankruptcy of bank
    • Make "base" model: complete base model = free market (labor, commodity, interest, money cost)
    • allow interest rate to be determined by free market, THEN introduce policy
  • Important points to investigate
    • Bankruptcy - learning
    • Double-auction market
    • Short selling

Back to MinSim.