View source for Minsim Meeting Agendas and Recaps

==09/29/08==

For next week:
* Look up information on Aspen project/failure(?) (starting point: [http://www.cs.sandia.gov/tech_reports/rjpryor/Aspen.html Aspen])
*Look at Chris's software and start trying to see if real-life economic problems are reproduced in the simulation
*Examples:
**Tariffs, international trade
**Specialization of labor, Adam Smith
**Maximizing revenue of entrepreneurs vs total country revenue
**Inflation, Stagflation, Phillips curve
**Compare the stability of a central banking system with that of the gold standard
**Evaluate the "bailout"
*Post summaries of articles up on the wiki
**Sign up for the wiki
**Edit the section "Papers on economic Agent-Based simulation"

Extension:
* Look at the household model and formulate ways to improve Chris's model

==10/06/08==
*Went over code
*Why don't prices stabilize on its own?
*Broad objectives?
*Figure out where supply/demand is in the code
*use this to see if the simulation satisfies the properties of supply/demand
*Play with parameters- More stability with more workers, etc? (keep in mind that this slows down the program)
*Brainstorm things we can look at in the future
*Interest rates?
*Meet separately Wednesday (4:30, Friend library) to look over code
*Start looking into old intro micro/macro books

==10/13/08==

Tasks
*Baseline economy
*Arbitragers
*External Influence
**SEC Regulation
**Government Regulation
**Taxes
**Media
**Rumors
*Factors going into external influence
**Banking
***Central banks
***Gold standard
**Technical vs. Fundamental analysis
***Trend following
**Machine learning
***Partial/full information for agent?
***Emotional agents?
***Agents don’t have to be fully rational
***How good should the machine learning be to reflect the world?
**International Trade


==10/20/08==

Task
*eric- lifecycles of individual
*tony- info flow, communication, mkt for information
*stephanie- financial intruments? taxes, 401ks? 
**Current banking system, politician's plans- will it work? Moratorium on mortgages. Free market vs. regulation of government
**Controversy b/w deregulation and regulation, party platforms
*CVS setup

==11/3/08==
*Sheri wants to look at Trend following, arbitrageurs
*Tony wants to look at media- flow of information in economy where default state is that they only know local information
*To simulate: make a theory, get mathematical results, then simulate to verify/revoke results
*Market failure - used to justify infusion of capital, govt regulation (build model for credit default swaps - miscalculation of risk- because of lack of government regulation?)
*IIASA: publications that conduct interdisciplinary studies on economy and other global forces: [http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pub/pubsrchKK IIASA]

==11/10/08==
* Eric's professor recommends that he understand the original model in the simulation and go through literature to understand savings and lifetimes.
* Tony - wants to start fundamentally on convergent prices and how information flows with pricing mechanisms. 
**Zero-intelligence Agents- Economic science association conference
**JEBO- paper by Mizuta, giving agents access to order book with offers to buy and sell-- enormously stabilizing
* Tony's advisor wants him to first do analytics, then do simulation
* Stephanie- is going to look into interbank lending and the credit crunch, then if possible, look into CDS contracts
** Prof Steiglitz has a technical description of credit crunch by a WWS professor affililated with the Econ dept

==11/17/08==
* Tony should look into auctions
* Stephanie will write up API documentation on the banking code.
* Framework interface is set up to define arbitrageurs like hedge fund. The entrepreneurs are arbitrage firms.
* Presentation by Prof. Vichnevetsky: "World" Modeling and Simulation
* Bib-tech: allows you to sort citations

==11/24/08==
* Paper summaries: To migrate to the main website at minsim.cs.princeton.edu.  Will create a bibliographic list, with links to popups with summaries.
* Tutorial
** Should be assessable to everyone
** Getting started page
** Step by step instructions
** Eclipse cheat-sheet
** Applications to COS444 and other classes
* Tony: locality problems to be looked into
* Machine learning responses to bidding strategies
** Ausubel + Cramton paper

==12/08/08==
* Stephanie: Interlending of banks
** Need to finish resolving the conflicts with Repast
* Questions to answer
** If you make some predictions about policy, what do competing theories predict?
** After interbank lending model, can look at government effects
* Further discussion: what you can include in coursework
* Dan: base abstract class is done for technical trader 
** Need to fill in the functions for each type
** Cannot short sell in this program
** Possible extension: Momentum trading
** plug into economy
* Sheri: circuit breaking
** Bernanke's [http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB121089412378097011.html bubble laboratory](about price bubbles)
** Brunnemeier also talked about this
* Tony: bilateral trades
** 2 agents - to trade, need to satisfy specific conditions
** Myerson and Sattertwaite (the homepage for COS444 has these literature references)


==01/08/09==
* Dan's project
** Money supply increasing out of control that allows the runs to be stable
** This needs to be investigated before adding to the model
** 16% of runs were stable
** Where does money come from? Taxes, deficit spending (central bank)
** Why doesn't this lead to inflation in food prices?
** Bankrupt firms should die or have a new learning algorithm
* Eric's progress
** Working in the cluster to run simulations
** Is there something wrong with the Q-learning algorithm?
** Overall, looking at stability
* Tony's 323 project
** Models of how agents exchange products- Who trades with whom?
** Geographic proximity, an internal list, etc.
** a lot of potential for different configurations
** No central market clearing mechanism
** Distributed, pairwise trading- meeting in the marketplace
* Book - Henry Hazlitt's "Economics in One Lesson" 
** Look at every effect of each action
** every action affects other agents
* Stephanie
** Deal with bankruptcy of bank
** Make "base" model: complete base model = free market (labor, commodity, interest, money cost)
** allow interest rate to be determined by free market, THEN introduce policy
* Important points to investigate
** Bankruptcy - learning
** Double-auction market
** Short selling

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