Difference between revisions of "Minsim Meeting Agendas and Recaps"

Latest revision as of 16:01, 8 January 2009

09/29/08

For next week:

• Look up information on Aspen project/failure(?) (starting point: Aspen)
• Look at Chris's software and start trying to see if real-life economic problems are reproduced in the simulation
• Examples:
  • Tariffs, international trade
  • Specialization of labor, Adam Smith
  • Maximizing revenue of entrepreneurs vs total country revenue
  • Inflation, Stagflation, Phillips curve
  • Compare the stability of a central banking system with that of the gold standard
  • Evaluate the "bailout"
• Post summaries of articles up on the wiki
  • Sign up for the wiki
  • Edit the section "Papers on economic Agent-Based simulation"

Extension:

• Look at the household model and formulate ways to improve Chris's model

10/06/08

• Went over code
• Why don't prices stabilize on its own?
• Broad objectives?
• Figure out where supply/demand is in the code
• use this to see if the simulation satisfies the properties of supply/demand
• Play with parameters- More stability with more workers, etc? (keep in mind that this slows down the program)
• Brainstorm things we can look at in the future
• Interest rates?
• Meet separately Wednesday (4:30, Friend library) to look over code
• Start looking into old intro micro/macro books

10/13/08

Tasks

• Baseline economy
• Arbitragers
• External Influence
  • SEC Regulation
  • Government Regulation
  • Taxes
  • Media
  • Rumors
• Factors going into external influence
  • Banking
    • Central banks
    • Gold standard
  • Technical vs. Fundamental analysis
    • Trend following
  • Machine learning
    • Partial/full information for agent?
    • Emotional agents?
    • Agents don’t have to be fully rational
    • How good should the machine learning be to reflect the world?
  • International Trade

10/20/08

Task

• eric- lifecycles of individual
• tony- info flow, communication, mkt for information
• stephanie- financial intruments? taxes, 401ks?
  • Current banking system, politician's plans- will it work? Moratorium on mortgages. Free market vs. regulation of government
  • Controversy b/w deregulation and regulation, party platforms
• CVS setup

11/3/08

• Sheri wants to look at Trend following, arbitrageurs
• Tony wants to look at media- flow of information in economy where default state is that they only know local information
• To simulate: make a theory, get mathematical results, then simulate to verify/revoke results
• Market failure - used to justify infusion of capital, govt regulation (build model for credit default swaps - miscalculation of risk- because of lack of government regulation?)
• IIASA: publications that conduct interdisciplinary studies on economy and other global forces: IIASA

11/10/08

• Eric's professor recommends that he understand the original model in the simulation and go through literature to understand savings and lifetimes.
• Tony - wants to start fundamentally on convergent prices and how information flows with pricing mechanisms.
  • Zero-intelligence Agents- Economic science association conference
  • JEBO- paper by Mizuta, giving agents access to order book with offers to buy and sell-- enormously stabilizing
• Tony's advisor wants him to first do analytics, then do simulation
• Stephanie- is going to look into interbank lending and the credit crunch, then if possible, look into CDS contracts
  • Prof Steiglitz has a technical description of credit crunch by a WWS professor affililated with the Econ dept

11/17/08

• Tony should look into auctions
• Stephanie will write up API documentation on the banking code.
• Framework interface is set up to define arbitrageurs like hedge fund. The entrepreneurs are arbitrage firms.
• Presentation by Prof. Vichnevetsky: "World" Modeling and Simulation
• Bib-tech: allows you to sort citations

11/24/08

• Paper summaries: To migrate to the main website at minsim.cs.princeton.edu. Will create a bibliographic list, with links to popups with summaries.
• Tutorial
  • Should be assessable to everyone
  • Getting started page
  • Step by step instructions
  • Eclipse cheat-sheet
  • Applications to COS444 and other classes
• Tony: locality problems to be looked into
• Machine learning responses to bidding strategies
  • Ausubel + Cramton paper

12/08/08

• Stephanie: Interlending of banks
  • Need to finish resolving the conflicts with Repast
• Questions to answer
  • If you make some predictions about policy, what do competing theories predict?
  • After interbank lending model, can look at government effects
• Further discussion: what you can include in coursework
• Dan: base abstract class is done for technical trader
  • Need to fill in the functions for each type
  • Cannot short sell in this program
  • Possible extension: Momentum trading
  • plug into economy
• Sheri: circuit breaking
  • Bernanke's bubble laboratory(about price bubbles)
  • Brunnemeier also talked about this
• Tony: bilateral trades
  • 2 agents - to trade, need to satisfy specific conditions
  • Myerson and Sattertwaite (the homepage for COS444 has these literature references)

01/08/09

• Dan's project
  • Money supply increasing out of control that allows the runs to be stable
  • This needs to be investigated before adding to the model
  • 16% of runs were stable
  • Where does money come from? Taxes, deficit spending (central bank)
  • Why doesn't this lead to inflation in food prices?
  • Bankrupt firms should die or have a new learning algorithm
• Eric's progress
  • Working in the cluster to run simulations
  • Is there something wrong with the Q-learning algorithm?
  • Overall, looking at stability
• Tony's 323 project
  • Models of how agents exchange products- Who trades with whom?
  • Geographic proximity, an internal list, etc.
  • a lot of potential for different configurations
  • No central market clearing mechanism
  • Distributed, pairwise trading- meeting in the marketplace
• Book - Henry Hazlitt's "Economics in One Lesson"
  • Look at every effect of each action
  • every action affects other agents
• Stephanie
  • Deal with bankruptcy of bank
  • Make "base" model: complete base model = free market (labor, commodity, interest, money cost)
  • allow interest rate to be determined by free market, THEN introduce policy
• Important points to investigate
  • Bankruptcy - learning
  • Double-auction market
  • Short selling

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