Minsim Meeting Agendas and Recaps

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Meeting Agendas/Tasks for Next Meeting

09/29/08 For next week:

  • Look up information on Aspen project/failure(?) (starting point: Aspen)
  • Look at Chris's software and start trying to see if real-life economic problems are reproduced in the simulation
  • Examples:
    • Tariffs, international trade
    • Specialization of labor, Adam Smith
    • Maximizing revenue of entrepreneurs vs total country revenue
    • Inflation, Stagflation, Phillips curve
    • Compare the stability of a central banking system with that of the gold standard
    • Evaluate the "bailout"
  • Post summaries of articles up on the wiki
    • Sign up for the wiki
    • Edit the section "Papers on economic Agent-Based simulation"

Extension:

  • Look at the household model and formulate ways to improve Chris's model

10/06/08

  • Went over code
  • Why don't prices stabilize on its own?
  • Broad objectives?
  • Figure out where supply/demand is in the code
  • use this to see if the simulation satisfies the properties of supply/demand
  • Play with parameters- More stability with more workers, etc? (keep in mind that this slows down the program)
  • Brainstorm things we can look at in the future
  • Interest rates?
  • Meet separately Wednesday (4:30, Friend library) to look over code
  • Start looking into old intro micro/macro books

Meeting Recap 10/13/08 - Tasks

  • Baseline economy
  • Arbitragers
  • External Influence
    • SEC Regulation
    • Government Regulation
    • Taxes
    • Media
    • Rumors
  • Factors going into external influence
    • Banking
      • Central banks
      • Gold standard
    • Technical vs. Fundamental analysis
      • Trend following
    • Machine learning
      • Partial/full information for agent?
      • Emotional agents?
      • Agents don’t have to be fully rational
      • How good should the machine learning be to reflect the world?
    • International Trade


Meeting Recap 10/20/08 - Tasks

  • eric- lifecycles of individual
  • tony- info flow, communication, mkt for information
  • stephanie- financial intruments? taxes, 401ks?
    • Current banking system, politician's plans- will it work? Moratorium on mortgages. Free market vs. regulation of government
    • Controversy b/w deregulation and regulation, party platforms
  • CVS setup

Meeting 11/3/08

  • Sheri wants to look at Trend following, arbitrageurs
  • Tony wants to look at media- flow of information in economy where default state is that they only know local information
  • To simulate: make a theory, get mathematical results, then simulate to verify/revoke results
  • Market failure - used to justify infusion of capital, govt regulation (build model for credit default swaps - miscalculation of risk- because of lack of government regulation?)
  • IIASA: publications that conduct interdisciplinary studies on economy and other global forces: IIASA

Meeting Updates 11/10/08

  • Eric's professor recommends that he understand the original model in the simulation and go through literature to understand savings and lifetimes.
  • Tony - wants to start fundamentally on convergent prices and how information flows with pricing mechanisms.
    • Zero-intelligence Agents- Economic science association conference
    • JEBO- paper by Mizuta, giving agents access to order book with offers to buy and sell-- enormously stabilizing
  • Tony's advisor wants him to first do analytics, then do simulation
  • Stephanie- is going to look into interbank lending and the credit crunch, then if possible, look into CDS contracts
    • Prof Steiglitz has a technical description of credit crunch by a WWS professor affililated with the Econ dept

11/17/08

  • Tony should look into auctions
  • Stephanie will write up API documentation on the banking code.
  • Framework interface is set up to define arbitrageurs like hedge fund. The entrepreneurs are arbitrage firms.
  • Presentation by Prof. Vichnevetsky: "World" Modeling and Simulation
  • Bib-tech: allows you to sort citations

11/24/08

  • Paper summaries: To migrate to the main website at minsim.cs.princeton.edu. Will create a bibliographic list, with links to popups with sumaries.
  • Tutorial
    • Should be assessable to everyone
    • Getting started page
    • Step by step instructions
    • Eclipse cheat-sheet
    • Applications to COS444 and other classes
  • Tony: locality problems to be looked into
  • Machine learning responses to bidding strategies
    • Ausubel + Cramton paper